Coffee prices are not determined solely on a retail shelf or in a supplier’s warehouse. Before coffee reaches the cup, it goes through a long journey: cultivation, harvesting, processing, export, transportation, roasting, and packaging.
At every stage, there are factors that can affect the final cost.
This has become especially noticeable in recent years, as the global coffee market has faced unstable weather conditions, fluctuations in crop yields, and high volatility in commodity prices.
Let’s look at why coffee prices rise, what determines the global price of coffee beans, and why events taking place thousands of kilometres away from Ukraine can ultimately affect the price of a cup of coffee.
1. Weather Is One of the Main Factors
Coffee is an agricultural product, so future harvests depend directly on climatic conditions.
Coffee trees require suitable temperatures, sufficient rainfall, and the right distribution of precipitation throughout the growing season.
Prolonged droughts, extreme heat, excessive rainfall, or sudden temperature changes can affect not only the size of the crop but also the quality of the beans.
That is why the global coffee market closely monitors weather conditions in the world’s major coffee-producing countries.
2. Why the Whole World Watches the Weather in Brazil
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, so changes in the country’s harvest can have a significant impact on the global market.
Brazil is particularly important for the Arabica coffee market.
In 2025, insufficient rainfall during certain periods affected the development of coffee trees. At the same time, the situation is not entirely negative: the USDA forecasts a significant increase in Brazilian coffee production in the 2026/27 season, reaching 71.9 million 60-kilogram bags, partly due to more favourable weather conditions and the natural production cycle of coffee trees.
However, a positive forecast does not mean that all risks have disappeared.
In 2026, producers are once again closely monitoring temperatures and rainfall patterns. Excessive rain has already affected harvesting in some regions, while heat and irregular rainfall create risks for the next production cycle.
That is why even a weather forecast in Brazil can trigger a reaction in the global coffee market long before the next crop is actually harvested.
3. Vietnam and Robusta: Another Major Factor in Global Coffee Prices
While Brazil plays a crucial role in the Arabica market, Vietnam is one of the key countries for Robusta production.
As a result, drought, excessive heat, or unstable rainfall in Vietnam can also affect global coffee prices.
Recent forecasts, however, are relatively positive. The USDA expects Vietnam’s coffee production to reach 32.5 million bags in the 2026/27 season, with approximately 31.4 million bags coming from Robusta.
This is a good example of why it is inaccurate to say that “coffee prices are always rising.”
The market changes constantly: a weaker crop may push prices higher, while expectations of a stronger harvest can create conditions for prices to decline.
4. What Is El Niño and What Does It Have to Do With Coffee?
Another factor closely watched by the coffee market is El Niño.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warmer-than-normal surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across different regions of the world.
This is important for the coffee industry because El Niño can create very different risks depending on the region.
In Southeast Asia, including Vietnam and Indonesia, it can increase the risk of dry conditions. In Brazil, the main risks may involve high temperatures and irregular rainfall.
That is why climate events that may seem unrelated to your morning espresso can ultimately affect the global price of coffee.
5. The Market Reacts Not Only to Actual Harvests, but Also to Expectations
There is another important point.
Coffee prices do not have to wait for farmers to physically harvest fewer beans before they change.
The global market reacts to expectations.
Forecasts of drought, excessive rainfall, or a smaller future crop can change market sentiment and commodity prices long before the actual scale of the problem becomes clear.
Conversely, forecasts of a strong harvest can create expectations of higher supply and put downward pressure on prices.
As a result, global coffee prices can move quite quickly in either direction.
The International Coffee Organization uses the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) as one of the key global benchmarks for tracking coffee price movements.
6. Arabica and Robusta Can Move Differently in Price
When people say that “coffee has become more expensive,” this is a major simplification.
Arabica and Robusta are different segments of the global coffee market.
Their prices are influenced by different producing countries, harvest volumes, weather conditions, inventories, and demand.
For example, problems with the Arabica crop in Brazil may have a stronger impact on the Arabica market. Meanwhile, production conditions in Vietnam are especially important for Robusta.
As a result, the price relationship between Arabica and Robusta is constantly changing.
7. Coffee Bean Prices Are Only Part of the Final Cost
The price of green coffee beans is only one component of the final cost of roasted coffee.
After harvesting, coffee must be processed, prepared for export, and transported to the country where it will be roasted.
The final cost is therefore also affected by:
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international logistics;
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ocean freight costs;
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fuel and energy prices;
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packaging;
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production expenses;
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currency exchange rates;
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roasting and quality control costs.
For Ukrainian coffee producers, exchange rates are especially important because green coffee beans are imported.
8. Why a Strong Harvest Does Not Mean Prices Will Fall Immediately
It may seem logical that if a large harvest is expected, coffee prices should fall immediately.
In reality, the situation is more complicated.
There is a time lag between harvesting coffee cherries on a farm and delivering roasted coffee to a customer. In addition, companies may still hold inventories purchased at earlier prices, existing contracts remain in place, and logistics and production costs do not disappear.
That is why changes in commodity prices do not automatically translate into lower retail or wholesale prices the next day.
9. Will Coffee Prices Continue to Rise?
There is no definitive answer.
The coffee market can move both up and down.
For example, improved harvest forecasts in Brazil became one of the factors leading some analysts in 2026 to expect a possible decline in global coffee prices after the previous strong increase.
At the same time, new weather risks can quickly change the situation.
That is why it is more accurate to talk about high volatility in the global coffee market rather than a constant upward trend in coffee prices.
10. What Does This Mean for Coffee Shops, Restaurants, and Other Businesses?
For businesses, changes in global coffee prices can be especially significant. Even a small difference in the price per kilogram can become a substantial amount when purchasing large quantities on a regular basis.
That is why businesses should look beyond today’s price when choosing a supplier.
Supply reliability, predictable cooperation terms, bean quality, and the ability to select a product that matches the business format and budget are just as important.
Conclusion
Coffee prices are shaped by an entire chain of factors — from weather conditions on plantations in Brazil and Vietnam to commodity prices, logistics, and currency exchange rates.
That is why the same coffee cannot remain at the same price indefinitely.
At the same time, price growth is not a continuous process. Periods of shortage can be followed by stronger harvests, increased supply, and changes in market direction.
For a coffee producer, it is especially important to monitor the global market, plan green coffee purchases carefully, and maintain consistent product quality at the same time.
VALEO Coffee Company has been working with coffee for more than 16 years and supplies freshly roasted coffee beans to businesses throughout Ukraine. During this time, we have repeatedly seen how the global coffee market changes, but one principle remains the same: bean quality and product consistency must remain a priority regardless of market fluctuations.